Monday, July 16, 2012

A Word on Moral Hazard

The mainstream media would have us believe that the fundamental ethical issues confronting business leaders today are primarily personal in nature, and that the ethical failures are failures of character.  The view that the various forms of corporate malaise which afflict our society are the collective result of unconscionable decision making on the part of a limited (or even a widespread) pool of bad actors ignores the larger structural issues which precipitate unethical behavior.  To ignore these factors (while not excusing those who make unethical or ethically questionable decisions) is to condemn oneself and society to the role of the proverbial ostrich with its head in the sand.

I will pause for a moment to point out that ostriches don't actually stick their heads in sand, and that the origin of this myth was the product of the instinctive habit of ostriches to move about with their heads inches above the ground, in combination with the instinctive habit of man to draw wildly false conclusions based on limited information- a point which, while off-topic, seems strangely relevant in a charming sort of way.  Nevertheless, let us move on and examine an alternative theory on the root causes of failures in corporate ethics, and attempt to determine whether this theory does, indeed, support a valid paradigm- or if we are merely hunting for subterranean ostriches.

Let's first start with the assertion that, absent other factors, a free market does not reward unethical behavior, provided that force, coercion, and fraud are avoided (we can come back to these later).  Assuming that we are talking about the complex world of ethics through which regulations are allegedly to guide us, rather than the basics of "Johnny wouldn't give me his Twinkie so I socked him one in the nose," by and large bad actors exist.  Fortunately for ethical business owners everywhere, reputation is a commodity, and unethical actors distort markets for only a short period of time, because consumers are very smart when integrated over time- that is, while they may make buying mistakes early, they generally will not make them often.  The ruthlessness of the market ensures that those who act unethically will not stay in business long, and limits the damage that bad actors can do by punishing and ultimately rehabilitating or eliminating them from the market.  If you doubt the truth of this, by all means try starting an internet business and ruthlessly scamming your customers*; tell me how your revenue outlook is in a year.

*Don't start an internet business in order to scam your customers; I am just making a point here.

We might think of the market as a giant sports field, with the market actors including vendors and consumers making up the teams.  The role of Government, then, ought to be that of referee- and at most groundskeeper.  The goal is to ensure a level playing field, not to award points to those that are unable to compete soundly.  It is also most certainly not to accept money from lobbyists from either team in order to ensure that they get the loopholes built into the rulebook that they are looking for.

If unethical behavior is itself punished by a free market (and I submit that it is), then how can it be that even in our highly regulated economy unethical behavior can run so apparently rampant?  Here we must attempt a paradigm shift: aside from fraud, the vast majority of unethical behavior in the business world is not extra-regulatory, or aregulatory, but rather occurs through the exploitation of the regulatory system itself.

Let me repeat that: the regulations are the vehicle which enables unethical behavior and market manipulation. In a society where force, coercion, and fraud are criminal (and strictly enforced), it is only through regulation that companies can truly create uneven playing fields.  For instance, absent regulations, if a market was cornered and prices rise (as they are expected to) there is a point at which the expected profit that might be earned by a competitor outweighs the requisite investment to enter the market, and entrepreneurs and venture capitalists will recognize and act upon the opportunity.  Thus it is only at the mutually beneficial point of selling high enough quality products at low enough margins and providing good enough service that a company could ever come close to cornering a market.  Any deviation from this course is a market vulnerability which will be exploited by a competitor.

However, in a regulated environment, one can imagine a number of ways that advantages can be gained by lobbying for loopholes, manipulating the regulators, leveraging ambiguities in regulatory languages, and so on.  It is in that moment at which Government claims the power to intervene in markets that the moral hazard is created which ultimately contributes directly to ethical failure.  It is because of the plethora of methods which are both practical and legal and which allow bad actors to take advantage of the regulatory matrix that this is the case.

Taking advantage of regulations is true anti-competitive behavior.  It is, to use the sports analogy, paying the groundskeeper to flood the field to slow the other team down, or having an extra timeout awarded to you because you happen to be the home team.  It is having the rules changed to benefit you and not the other market players; it is not competitive behavior, and in the sense of being just and equitable, it is certainly not ethical.  For this reason, it is not the market actors, but rather the system itself which grants the power to choose winners and losers that is ultimately the root of persistent unethical behavior in the marketplace.  We cannot look to individuals to change their behavior within a system that rewards that behavior, but must rather reform the system by removing the moral hazard introduced by intervention.

10 comments:

  1. You make good points and I’m truly impressed by the clarity of your argument. I have a few questions/follow-up points:

    You say that a free market does not reward unethical behavior, provided that force coercsion and fraud are avoided. I don't think that premise is realistic. The market actually encourages those things IF there is any sort of government, even a monarchic one. Reasonable folks can disagree here, and I don’t want to prejudge your counter argument, but I think that for just about any role of government you agree to (basic law enforcement, contract law, on up), you can find a financial incentive to ‘cheat’ that puts collapsing pressure on the market. There is an inherent tension between a ‘free’ market and any sort of government. And I still believe the key to the structural problem is the right sort of tension of powers, between government, citizens, corporations (and maybe other entities). Because at the end of the day as the sun sets (except in Barrow this time of year), you are right the problem with unethical business behavior is the system’s structure, but the problem with this structure is people making, enforcing, and adjudicating the rules of it. I think there is a way to succor the system to create a more level playing field as you say, but what is that? We don’t have to be too specific yet, but architecturally, what are we looking at in your opinion? How do check our own tendencies to undermine the market (I don't think saying the market will take care of will work in practice for many of the reasons already pointed out), while ensuring the market appropriately costs externalities all the while protecting the market from informational asymmetries, monopolies (we have more to talk about here it seems), and other pressures toward failure? Let’s come up with the structure, throw in some curves and graphs, then split the Nobel prize 4 ways, and hit the Ibiza party scene with JStiglitz. JB can fist bump with the best of them.

    Finally, before I forget, you mentioned a cornered market – There are instances where while what you say seems technically true to me, in practice I’m not sure markets would equilibrate in a reasonable time frame – reminds me of that quote, “markets can stay volatile longer that you can stay liquid.” For lack of a better example, take a market where the barriers to entry are great, e.g. plane building. The threshold you describe would have to be high. More than that, the monopoly would have an incentive to allow prices to rise just high enough so as to disincentivize a competitor to enter that market (that’s presuming they can aggregate the requisite investment). Those prices then set by the monopolist would still be out of equilibrium, and owing to the barriers, this distortion would not necessarily be self correcting and certainly not in the short run.

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  2. Ps I meant minarchic not monarchic (damn autocorrect) ;)

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  3. Your first point is well taken, and actually underscores the importance of my premise which I may not have made quite clearly enough: the role of Government in markets is hazard inducing. Period. The role of Government to prevent fraud, breach of contract, force, and coercion is not a market role. It is law and order in all its stark glory. It is not intervention.

    The incentive to cheat is not eliminated in this case but rather regulated by the other market participants- namely, the buyers. Bad actors that act within the rule of law will act only until they are found out. Think of Dale Carnegie here. The only way to "trick" people into really liking you is to actually care about them- no trick at all. The same generally holds true in markets. Most businesses rely on repeat business and you won't get much of that if you're screwing people over. It's maybe a long way of saying it, but you don't need the Government to manage the market, consumers manage it themselves because they have compelling financial incentive to do so.

    As for the cornered market argument, why is the barrier to entry in plane building high? And, if it is high naturally, what is wrong with realizing a higher return on such an industry (to the point where people will *almost* consider taking a dive into said market)? There's a reason planes are 'spensive.

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  4. Phew. Ok. I've finally read thru Joe's initial post, and will soon get to these 500 word or less replies. Real comments from J-Busy coming in by tmw or so fo sho.

    In the meantime, I presume you've all seen this? I know we're in a quasi-academic, reality-vortex area of debate here, but some of what we're touching upon is frighteningly real.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719?page=4

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  5. 1. Sorry beating the shit out what probably seems like a long dead horse. I bring these points up (repetitively as it turns out), because it seems to me that in the replies my point may be understood -- I'm clearly miscommunicating, so my bad. My point is this: Governments will ALWAYS in practice (eventually) assert a role in markets, period. So, trying to contain gov't to a law and order role is in my opinion chimerical. If you accept point (I've at least demonstrated to myself in other posts why I believe this to be true), what framework can be constructed to mitigate the breadth of abuse. That may not be of interest to others, but that's what I'm trying to tease out on my Montana brain.

    2. Planes - definitely expensive and should be. A market with a monopolist CAN reach equilibrium (or appear to), but it's just an inefficient one and represents a functional market failure and associated deadweight losses (graphs make this easier to show). Of course there is nothing wrong with a higher ROI (in a market sense), unless it's in part driven by monopolistic force in which consumers are forced to be price takers. I do see your point that the prices the monopolist charges could represent fair market prices, but I would argue that the lack of competition -- and hence the ability of the monopolist to set prices -- suggests otherwise.

    3. Btw, a few of the guys who started those online scamming businesses have made small fortunes.

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  6. Three words: Yes. Jack. Sparrow.

    I hate to come in with an anti-climactic post after such a long wait, but I don't see so much controversy in the initial post here as to make a big fuss over it. I'd take issue with your use of "moral hazard", whose meaning as an economic term only fits this case with a very healthy dose of poetic license. I'd also probably introduce another ontological impasse as to who is the chicken and who is the egg, as far as free market forces or government being the fundamental vehicle for unethical behavior. My reasoning here is that, from a moral perspective, I don't buy the entire, "it's in the nature of companies to seek every avenue of gaining profit and market share possible", as an excuse for manipulating rules and harming the societal aggregate. I do buy some of it though, in that I take greed, growth, and accumulation for granted as aspects of human nature, and therefore corporate nature.

    Ultimately it sounds like we can distill a lot of the descriptive down to one point: Too much government leads to undesirable market consequences. I don't think any of us would argue against that.

    To Jack's point though, I do think that your minimalism regarding the role of government in a modern country is unrealistic and unfounded, Joe. The balance between corporations, citizens, and government is critical, and particularly in a democracy where government is the dominant vehicle for coordinated, collective action (second-ed only by non-profit NGOs), I don't think you can downplay that role to where you seem to want to.

    To put it in economic terms, the role of government is not just "to prevent fraud, breach of contract, force, and coercion", as you and Ron Paul mention. A crucial role that government must also provide for is to fill in for market failure. As per my thread last week, market failure is rampant across nearly all public and semi-public goods. For some of them the market has even tried to provide for them, but failed due to insufficient government under-writing. Prime time example here is healthcare.

    Joe, in real world terms, not theoretical world terms, how do you see correction of market failure if not through government?

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  8. Jack: The missing point is that subsidiarity in Government, like distributism in business, tends to naturally breed more ethical behavior. That the body governing is closest to the governed is a necessity, much as the closer ownership is to the customer and staff. It is hard to keep legislators accountable to thousands of faceless voters just as it is hard to keep executives accountable to thousands of faceless shareholders.

    I would love to go into a longer discussion of 10th Amendment vs. 17th Amendment and whether the Founding Fathers or the William Jennings-Bryant era populists more closely protected the interests of the Public as a whole, but I'll run out of my 500 words.

    Jon: Your assertion that Government is the vehicle for collective action is the primary fallacy that drives the "Big Government fights Big Business" narrative. Look at constituents, lobbyists, and legislation. Does the legislation most often represent the interests of the constituents or of the lobbyists?

    Arguing that our Federal Government represents the will of the people in any meaningful way is more ludicrous than my suggesting that we could restrain Government from interfering from markets. Our current system is built on legal graft and misdirection.

    Reforming our current system is, in my mind, a reasonable alternative to pretending that it is not broken in the first place.

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  9. Without a doubt, our current system of government is not functioning as it should. Electoral mechanisms are skewed in such a way that those who are empowered to lead the country don't actually represent the choices and perspectives of the majority of citizens. More importantly, and to your point, the lack of insulation of governing mechanisms and leadership figures from lobby forces (and funds) is a direct threat to the integrity of the decisions made by those who do wind up in power.

    That said, just because our democracy is not functioning properly does not change the fact that a functional government has an appropriate role in insuring the provision of goods not provided for by market forces. The reforms that are needed-- for example, the restructuring of election finance rules-- are ones that better protect the integrity of governing mechanisms precisely so that they can better fulfill their necessary roles.

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  10. Ah. Now we are getting down to the nitty gritty. I agree with essentially 100% of what you just said. There are some points that we will need to negotiate, and pursuant to Phil's suggestion, I think I will reserve them for a later date. But it's a matter of hammering out where the boundaries ought to be, rather than agreeing that there is a role with necessarily definite boundaries.

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